Genoa CFC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Genoa CFC 57.4% · Draw 22.2% · Venezia FC 20.5% Why Genoa CFC is favoured Genoa CFC's Elo (1417) is +60 over Venezia FC (1357); high confidence. Recent: Genoa CFC 1W-1D-5L · Venezia FC 1W-0D-6L (last 7). Goal differential per game: Genoa CFC -1.1, Venezia FC -1.4. Form depth Genoa CFC: avg 0.7 goals scored, 1.9 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 0/3 on the road). Venezia FC: avg 0.9 goals scored, 2.3 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 0/3 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.9 total goals (Genoa CFC 1.5, Venezia FC 1.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Genoa CFC 0W, 3D, Venezia FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-0, 2-0, 1-1.