US Lecce scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities US Lecce 8.4% · Draw 15.6% · Juventus FC 76.0% Why Juventus FC is favoured Juventus FC's Elo (1657) is +285 over US Lecce (1372); high confidence. Recent: US Lecce 3W-0D-4L · Juventus FC 3W-2D-2L (last 7). Goal differential per game: US Lecce -0.4, Juventus FC +0.1. Form depth US Lecce: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 2/4 on the road). Juventus FC: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 1/3 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.7 total goals (US Lecce 1.2, Juventus FC 1.5) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — US Lecce 0W, 3D, Juventus FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-1, 1-1, 2-1. Calibration Raw model: 13.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 8.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.