Atalanta BC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Atalanta BC 57.2% · Draw 21.9% · Frosinone Calcio 20.9% Why Atalanta BC is favoured Atalanta BC's Elo (1591) is +69 over Frosinone Calcio (1523); low confidence. Recent: Atalanta BC 3W-0D-4L · Frosinone Calcio 4W-1D-2L (last 7). Goal differential per game: Atalanta BC -0.1, Frosinone Calcio +0.6. Form depth Atalanta BC: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 0/3 on the road). Frosinone Calcio: avg 1.9 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 1/3 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.1 total goals (Atalanta BC 1.4, Frosinone Calcio 1.7) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Atalanta BC 0W, 2D, Frosinone Calcio 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 5-0, 2-1. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.