Como 1907 scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Como 1907 70.8% · Draw 17.9% · US Sassuolo Calcio 11.4% Why Como 1907 is favoured Como 1907's Elo (1637) is +172 over US Sassuolo Calcio (1465); high confidence. Recent: Como 1907 6W-2D-2L · US Sassuolo Calcio 2W-2D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Como 1907 +1.0, US Sassuolo Calcio -0.3. Form depth Como 1907: avg 2.2 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 3/6 on the road). US Sassuolo Calcio: avg 1.7 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 0/4 on the road). Como 1907 on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.6 total goals (Como 1907 2.1, US Sassuolo Calcio 1.5) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Calibration Raw model: 68.6% home · Platt-calibrated up to 70.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.