Frosinone Calcio scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Frosinone Calcio 68.4% · Draw 18.6% · US Lecce 13.0% Why Frosinone Calcio is favoured Frosinone Calcio's Elo (1523) is +151 over US Lecce (1372); low confidence. Recent: Frosinone Calcio 4W-2D-2L · US Lecce 3W-0D-5L (last 8). Goal differential per game: Frosinone Calcio +0.5, US Lecce -0.6. Form depth Frosinone Calcio: avg 2.1 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 1/4 on the road). US Lecce: avg 1.1 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 2/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.3 total goals (Frosinone Calcio 1.9, US Lecce 1.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Frosinone Calcio 0W, 3D, US Lecce 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 1-1, 2-1. Calibration Raw model: 66.5% home · Platt-calibrated up to 68.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.