US Sassuolo Calcio scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities US Sassuolo Calcio 26.1% · Draw 22.0% · SS Lazio 51.9% Why SS Lazio is favoured SS Lazio's Elo (1574) is +108 over US Sassuolo Calcio (1465); high confidence. Recent: US Sassuolo Calcio 2W-2D-4L · SS Lazio 7W-1D-0L (last 8). Goal differential per game: US Sassuolo Calcio -0.5, SS Lazio +1.4. Form depth US Sassuolo Calcio: avg 1.5 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 0/5 on the road). SS Lazio: avg 2.0 goals scored, 0.6 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 4/4 on the road). US Sassuolo Calcio on a 2-match losing streak. SS Lazio on a 4-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.1 total goals (US Sassuolo Calcio 1.1, SS Lazio 2.0) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — US Sassuolo Calcio 0W, 1D, SS Lazio 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 1-0, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 30.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 26.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.