Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Atalanta BC
To win
+$10.40
Total payout
$30.40
Joint prob
70.8%
Combined odds
1.52
Fair odds
1.41
Edge
+7.7%
Expected value: +$1.54 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.54 on a $20 stake.
Joint prob 10% lower than naïve — books overprice this kind of pair.
Expected value: +$0.12 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Atalanta BC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 70.8% · fair market: 63.6% · edge: +11.3%
Model probabilities Atalanta BC 70.8% · Draw 17.8% · Parma Calcio 1913 11.3% Why Atalanta BC is favoured Atalanta BC's Elo (1591) is +173 over Parma Calcio 1913 (1419); high confidence. Recent: Atalanta BC 3W-2D-4L · Parma Calcio 1913 1W-2D-6L (last 9). Goal differential per game: Atalanta BC -0.1, Parma Calcio 1913 -1.1. Form depth Atalanta BC: avg 1.8 goals scored, 1.9 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 0/4 on the road). Parma Calcio 1913: avg 0.6 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 0/4 on the road). Atalanta BC on a 2-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.9 total goals (Atalanta BC 1.7, Parma Calcio 1913 1.2) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Atalanta BC 0W, 1D, Parma Calcio 1913 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 4-0, 1-1, 2-3. Calibration Raw model: 68.7% home · Platt-calibrated up to 70.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 70.8% vs market 63.6% (edge +11.3%, suggested Kelly +14.8% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.