Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · US Lecce
To win
+$50.60
Total payout
$70.60
Joint prob
43.4%
Combined odds
3.53
Fair odds
2.30
Edge
+53.2%
Expected value: +$10.65 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$10.65 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.18 on a $20 stake.
Joint prob 15% lower than naïve — books overprice this kind of pair.
Expected value: +$11.81 on a $20 stake.
Joint probability uses the model's score-grid correlation for the home + btts pair (not independent). Other legs multiplied independently.
Expected value: +$11.81 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
US Lecce scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 43.4% · fair market: 27.5% · edge: +58.0%
Model probabilities US Lecce 43.4% · Draw 23.5% · Genoa CFC 33.1% Why US Lecce is favoured Genoa CFC's Elo (1417) is +45 over US Lecce (1372); high confidence. Recent: US Lecce 3W-0D-6L · Genoa CFC 3W-1D-5L (last 9). Goal differential per game: US Lecce -1.0, Genoa CFC -0.6. Form depth US Lecce: avg 1.1 goals scored, 2.1 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 2/5 on the road). Genoa CFC: avg 0.9 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (3/6 at home, 0/3 on the road). US Lecce on a 2-match losing streak. Genoa CFC on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (US Lecce 1.3, Genoa CFC 1.5) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — US Lecce 0W, 4D, Genoa CFC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 0-0, 2-1. Calibration Raw model: 44.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 43.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 43.4% vs market 27.5% (edge +58.0%, suggested Kelly +21.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.