Bologna FC 1909 scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Bologna FC 1909 71.6% · Draw 17.2% · AC Monza 11.2% Why Bologna FC 1909 is favoured Bologna FC 1909's Elo (1518) is +191 over AC Monza (1327); high confidence. Recent: Bologna FC 1909 3W-2D-4L · AC Monza 2W-1D-6L (last 9). Goal differential per game: Bologna FC 1909 +0.0, AC Monza -0.7. Form depth Bologna FC 1909: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (0/4 at home, 3/5 on the road). AC Monza: avg 1.8 goals scored, 2.4 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 0/5 on the road). Bologna FC 1909 on a 2-match winning streak. AC Monza on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.4 total goals (Bologna FC 1909 1.9, AC Monza 1.6) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Bologna FC 1909 0W, 2D, AC Monza 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-1, 1-2, 0-0. Calibration Raw model: 69.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 71.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.