Willem II Tilburg scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Willem II Tilburg 36.6% · Draw 27.9% · SBV Excelsior 35.5% Why Willem II Tilburg is favoured SBV Excelsior's Elo (1523) is +63 over Willem II Tilburg (1460); low confidence. Recent: Willem II Tilburg 0W-1D-2L · SBV Excelsior 2W-0D-1L (last 3). Goal differential per game: Willem II Tilburg -2.0, SBV Excelsior +1.3. Form depth Willem II Tilburg: avg 1.3 goals scored, 3.3 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 0/1 on the road). SBV Excelsior: avg 2.3 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 1/1 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~4.0 total goals (Willem II Tilburg 1.2, SBV Excelsior 2.8) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — Willem II Tilburg 0W, 5D, SBV Excelsior 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 34.7% home · Platt-calibrated up to 36.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context SBV Excelsior has 1 more day of rest (Willem II Tilburg 27d, SBV Excelsior 28d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.