Willem II Tilburg scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Willem II Tilburg 37.8% · Draw 28.6% · SC Heerenveen 33.6% Why Willem II Tilburg is favoured SC Heerenveen's Elo (1506) is +46 over Willem II Tilburg (1460); low confidence. Recent: Willem II Tilburg 0W-0D-2L · SC Heerenveen 1W-1D-1L (last 3). Goal differential per game: Willem II Tilburg -3.0, SC Heerenveen -0.3. Form depth Willem II Tilburg: avg 1.0 goals scored, 4.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). SC Heerenveen: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 0/1 on the road). Willem II Tilburg on a 2-match losing streak. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Willem II Tilburg 0W, 1D, SC Heerenveen 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-1, 1-2, 0-0. Context Willem II Tilburg has 1 more day of rest (Willem II Tilburg 21d, SC Heerenveen 20d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.