PEC Zwolle scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities PEC Zwolle 41.3% · Draw 29.9% · NEC 28.8% Why PEC Zwolle is favoured NEC's Elo (1509) is +10 over PEC Zwolle (1499); low confidence. Recent: PEC Zwolle 1W-0D-2L · NEC 1W-0D-1L (last 3). Goal differential per game: PEC Zwolle -0.7, NEC +1.0. Form depth PEC Zwolle: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 1/2 on the road). NEC: avg 2.5 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 1/1 on the road). But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — PEC Zwolle 0W, 3D, NEC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 2-2, 0-1. Calibration Raw model: 44.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 41.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context NEC has 1 more day of rest (PEC Zwolle 20d, NEC 21d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.