AZ scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities AZ 46.7% · Draw 28.4% · Go Ahead Eagles 24.9% Why AZ is favoured AZ's Elo (1548) is +30 over Go Ahead Eagles (1517); low confidence. Recent: AZ 3W-0D-0L · Go Ahead Eagles 2W-1D-0L (last 3). Goal differential per game: AZ +2.3, Go Ahead Eagles +1.7. Form depth AZ: avg 2.7 goals scored, 0.3 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 2/2 on the road). Go Ahead Eagles: avg 3.0 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (2/2 at home, 0/1 on the road). AZ on a 3-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.7 total goals (AZ 2.0, Go Ahead Eagles 1.7) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — AZ 0W, 3D, Go Ahead Eagles 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-0, 2-2, 0-3. Calibration Raw model: 53.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 46.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.