SBV Excelsior scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SBV Excelsior 45.1% · Draw 29.1% · Sparta Rotterdam 25.8% Why SBV Excelsior is favoured SBV Excelsior's Elo (1523) is +18 over Sparta Rotterdam (1505); low confidence. Recent: SBV Excelsior 1W-0D-1L · Sparta Rotterdam 1W-1D-1L (last 3). Goal differential per game: SBV Excelsior +1.5, Sparta Rotterdam +0.3. Form depth SBV Excelsior: avg 2.5 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 1/1 on the road). Sparta Rotterdam: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 1/1 on the road). But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — SBV Excelsior 0W, 1D, Sparta Rotterdam 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-3, 0-1, 4-2. Calibration Raw model: 51.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 45.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context SBV Excelsior has 1 more day of rest (SBV Excelsior 21d, Sparta Rotterdam 20d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.