FC Groningen scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities FC Groningen 44.4% · Draw 29.7% · Fortuna Sittard 25.9% Why FC Groningen is favoured Elo essentially level (1499 vs 1493) — winner depends on context. Recent: FC Groningen 2W-0D-1L · Fortuna Sittard 1W-1D-1L (last 3). Goal differential per game: FC Groningen +0.0, Fortuna Sittard +0.0. Form depth FC Groningen: avg 2.3 goals scored, 2.3 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 1/2 on the road). Fortuna Sittard: avg 1.7 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 0/1 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~4.0 total goals (FC Groningen 2.0, Fortuna Sittard 2.0) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 50.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 44.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.