FC Twente '65 scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities FC Twente '65 46.4% · Draw 28.5% · Telstar 1963 25.1% Why FC Twente '65 is favoured FC Twente '65's Elo (1522) is +28 over Telstar 1963 (1494); low confidence. Recent: FC Twente '65 2W-1D-1L · Telstar 1963 1W-1D-2L (last 4). Goal differential per game: FC Twente '65 +1.0, Telstar 1963 -1.3. Form depth FC Twente '65: avg 2.3 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 1/3 on the road). Telstar 1963: avg 1.3 goals scored, 2.5 conceded per game (0/3 at home, 1/1 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.6 total goals (FC Twente '65 2.4, Telstar 1963 1.3) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — FC Twente '65 0W, 2D, Telstar 1963 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 1-1, 0-0. Calibration Raw model: 52.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 46.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Telstar 1963 has 1 more day of rest (FC Twente '65 30d, Telstar 1963 31d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.