NEC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities NEC 41.1% · Draw 29.7% · SBV Excelsior 29.2% Why NEC is favoured SBV Excelsior's Elo (1539) is +15 over NEC (1524); low confidence. Recent: NEC 2W-0D-2L · SBV Excelsior 3W-0D-1L (last 4). Goal differential per game: NEC +0.5, SBV Excelsior +1.8. Form depth NEC: avg 2.3 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 2/2 on the road). SBV Excelsior: avg 2.5 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 2/2 on the road). SBV Excelsior on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.6 total goals (NEC 1.5, SBV Excelsior 2.1) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — NEC 0W, 1D, SBV Excelsior 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-2, 5-0, 0-3. Calibration Raw model: 44.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 41.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.