Telstar 1963 scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Telstar 1963 48.1% · Draw 28.8% · Sparta Rotterdam 23.1% Why Telstar 1963 is favoured Telstar 1963's Elo (1510) is +20 over Sparta Rotterdam (1490); low confidence. Recent: Telstar 1963 1W-0D-0L · Sparta Rotterdam 0W-0D-1L (last 1). Goal differential per game: Telstar 1963 +1.0, Sparta Rotterdam -1.0. Form depth Telstar 1963: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (1/1 on the road). Sparta Rotterdam: avg 0.0 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home). But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — Telstar 1963 0W, 4D, Sparta Rotterdam 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 4-1, 1-0. Calibration Raw model: 56.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 48.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Telstar 1963 has 1 more day of rest (Telstar 1963 6d, Sparta Rotterdam 5d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.