SC Heerenveen scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SC Heerenveen 44.1% · Draw 30.5% · FC Twente '65 25.4% Why SC Heerenveen is favoured SC Heerenveen's Elo (1515) is +15 over FC Twente '65 (1500); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — SC Heerenveen 0W, 4D, FC Twente '65 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 5-0, 1-2, 3-3. Calibration Raw model: 49.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 44.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.