PEC Zwolle scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities PEC Zwolle 49.2% · Draw 27.0% · AFC Ajax 23.8% Why PEC Zwolle is favoured PEC Zwolle's Elo (1515) is +60 over AFC Ajax (1455); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — PEC Zwolle 0W, 2D, AFC Ajax 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-0, 3-1, 0-1. Calibration Raw model: 55.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 49.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.