LDU de Quito scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities LDU de Quito 50.5% · Draw 25.8% · Club Always Ready 23.7% Why LDU de Quito is favoured Elo essentially level (1505 vs 1513) — winner depends on context. Recent: LDU de Quito 3W-0D-2L · Club Always Ready 1W-0D-4L (last 5). Goal differential per game: LDU de Quito +0.4, Club Always Ready -0.2. Form depth LDU de Quito: avg 1.0 goals scored, 0.6 conceded per game (2/2 at home, 1/3 on the road). Club Always Ready: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 0/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~1.9 total goals (LDU de Quito 1.1, Club Always Ready 0.8) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.