LDU de Quito scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities LDU de Quito 49.3% · Draw 25.9% · CA Lanús 24.8% Why LDU de Quito is favoured Elo essentially level (1490 vs 1486) — winner depends on context. Recent: LDU de Quito 2W-0D-2L · CA Lanús 2W-0D-2L (last 4). Goal differential per game: LDU de Quito +0.0, CA Lanús -0.8. Form depth LDU de Quito: avg 0.8 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 1/3 on the road). CA Lanús: avg 0.5 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (2/2 at home, 0/2 on the road). LDU de Quito on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~1.6 total goals (LDU de Quito 1.0, CA Lanús 0.6) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Context LDU de Quito has 1 more day of rest (LDU de Quito 42d, CA Lanús 41d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.