SE Palmeiras scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SE Palmeiras 52.2% · Draw 25.6% · CDP Junior FC 22.2% Why SE Palmeiras is favoured SE Palmeiras's Elo (1524) is +15 over CDP Junior FC (1510); low confidence. Recent: SE Palmeiras 5W-4D-1L · CDP Junior FC 1W-1D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: SE Palmeiras +0.7, CDP Junior FC -0.6. Form depth SE Palmeiras: avg 1.3 goals scored, 0.6 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 3/5 on the road). CDP Junior FC: avg 0.8 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 0/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.0 total goals (SE Palmeiras 1.4, CDP Junior FC 0.7) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — SE Palmeiras 0W, 1D, CDP Junior FC 0W (draws are common). Last 1: 1-1. Context CDP Junior FC has 8 more days of rest (SE Palmeiras 41d, CDP Junior FC 49d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.