Club Cerro Porteño scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Club Cerro Porteño 36.3% · Draw 25.0% · CS Cristal 38.8% Why CS Cristal is favoured Club Cerro Porteño's Elo (1510) is +35 over CS Cristal (1475); low confidence. Recent: Club Cerro Porteño 3W-1D-1L · CS Cristal 4W-2D-3L (last 9). Goal differential per game: Club Cerro Porteño +0.4, CS Cristal +0.1. Form depth Club Cerro Porteño: avg 0.8 goals scored, 0.4 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 2/3 on the road). CS Cristal: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.9 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 1/4 on the road). Club Cerro Porteño on a 2-match winning streak. CS Cristal on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.5 total goals (Club Cerro Porteño 1.3, CS Cristal 1.2) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Club Cerro Porteño has a stronger recent record (60% vs 44%) — model favours CS Cristal on Elo despite Club Cerro Porteño's form. Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Club Cerro Porteño 0W, 1D, CS Cristal 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 0-1, 2-2. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.