CDP Junior FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CDP Junior FC 30.6% · Draw 25.6% · CS Cristal 43.9% Why CS Cristal is favoured Recent: CDP Junior FC 0W-1D-3L · CS Cristal 4W-2D-2L (last 8). Goal differential per game: CDP Junior FC -1.0, CS Cristal +0.3. Form depth CDP Junior FC: avg 0.3 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 0/2 on the road). CS Cristal: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 1/3 on the road). CDP Junior FC on a 3-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.6 total goals (CDP Junior FC 1.0, CS Cristal 1.6) — right around 2.5.