SE Palmeiras scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SE Palmeiras 50.9% · Draw 25.6% · Club Cerro Porteño 23.6% Why SE Palmeiras is favoured Recent: SE Palmeiras 4W-6D-0L · Club Cerro Porteño 2W-1D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: SE Palmeiras +0.5, Club Cerro Porteño +0.3. Form depth SE Palmeiras: avg 1.1 goals scored, 0.6 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 2/6 on the road). Club Cerro Porteño: avg 0.8 goals scored, 0.5 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 1/2 on the road). SE Palmeiras on a 2-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~1.5 total goals (SE Palmeiras 0.8, Club Cerro Porteño 0.7) — below 2.5. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — SE Palmeiras 0W, 1D, Club Cerro Porteño 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 0-2, 1-0.