CDP Junior FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CDP Junior FC 45.3% · Draw 26.0% · Club Cerro Porteño 28.7% Why CDP Junior FC is favoured Elo essentially level (1500 vs 1500) — winner depends on context. Recent: CDP Junior FC 0W-1D-2L · Club Cerro Porteño 1W-1D-1L (last 3). Goal differential per game: CDP Junior FC -1.0, Club Cerro Porteño +0.0. Form depth CDP Junior FC: avg 0.3 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/2 on the road). Club Cerro Porteño: avg 0.7 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 0/1 on the road). CDP Junior FC on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~1.5 total goals (CDP Junior FC 0.5, Club Cerro Porteño 1.0) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (30%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (30% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.