CA Peñarol scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CA Peñarol 45.2% · Draw 25.6% · SC Corinthians Paulista 29.2% Why CA Peñarol is favoured CA Peñarol's Elo (1500) is +15 over SC Corinthians Paulista (1485); low confidence. Recent: CA Peñarol 0W-2D-2L · SC Corinthians Paulista 5W-3D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: CA Peñarol -0.8, SC Corinthians Paulista +0.5. Form depth CA Peñarol: avg 0.8 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/3 on the road). SC Corinthians Paulista: avg 1.3 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.2 total goals (CA Peñarol 0.8, SC Corinthians Paulista 1.4) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.