Coritiba FBC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Coritiba FBC 48.8% · Draw 29.0% · Mirassol FC 22.1% Why Coritiba FBC is favoured Coritiba FBC's Elo (1487) is +13 over Mirassol FC (1474); medium confidence. Recent: Coritiba FBC 5W-2D-3L · Mirassol FC 2W-4D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Coritiba FBC +0.1, Mirassol FC -0.7. Form depth Coritiba FBC: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Mirassol FC: avg 1.4 goals scored, 2.1 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Coritiba FBC on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.2 total goals (Coritiba FBC 1.8, Mirassol FC 1.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Calibration Raw model: 57.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 48.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.