EC Bahia scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities EC Bahia 46.4% · Draw 28.0% · SC Internacional 25.5% Why EC Bahia is favoured EC Bahia's Elo (1524) is +38 over SC Internacional (1486); medium confidence. Recent: EC Bahia 3W-6D-1L · SC Internacional 1W-5D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: EC Bahia +0.4, SC Internacional -0.4. Form depth EC Bahia: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). SC Internacional: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). SC Internacional on a 4-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.4 total goals (EC Bahia 1.4, SC Internacional 1.0) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — EC Bahia 0W, 3D, SC Internacional 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-1, 2-2, 1-0. Calibration Raw model: 52.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 46.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.