EC Vitória scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities EC Vitória 41.7% · Draw 28.8% · EC Bahia 29.5% Why EC Vitória is favoured EC Bahia's Elo (1510) is +33 over EC Vitória (1478); medium confidence. Recent: EC Vitória 3W-2D-5L · EC Bahia 2W-6D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: EC Vitória -0.8, EC Bahia +0.1. Form depth EC Vitória: avg 0.7 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 0/6 on the road). EC Bahia: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (2/6 at home, 0/4 on the road). EC Bahia on a 5-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.3 total goals (EC Vitória 0.9, EC Bahia 1.4) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — EC Vitória 0W, 4D, EC Bahia 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 2-1, 2-1. Calibration Raw model: 44.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 41.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.