EC Bahia scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities EC Bahia 46.1% · Draw 27.6% · CR Vasco da Gama 26.3% Why EC Bahia is favoured EC Bahia's Elo (1514) is +54 over CR Vasco da Gama (1460); low confidence. Recent: EC Bahia 2W-6D-2L · CR Vasco da Gama 2W-3D-5L (last 10). Goal differential per game: EC Bahia +0.1, CR Vasco da Gama -0.7. Form depth EC Bahia: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (2/6 at home, 0/4 on the road). CR Vasco da Gama: avg 0.8 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). EC Bahia on a 3-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.5 total goals (EC Bahia 1.4, CR Vasco da Gama 1.1) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — EC Bahia 0W, 2D, CR Vasco da Gama 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-1, 1-0, 3-1. Calibration Raw model: 50.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 46.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (35% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.