EC Vitória scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities EC Vitória 40.7% · Draw 25.1% · SC Internacional 34.2% Why EC Vitória is favoured SC Internacional's Elo (1534) is +30 over EC Vitória (1504); low confidence. Recent: EC Vitória 3W-3D-4L · SC Internacional 5W-4D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: EC Vitória -0.3, SC Internacional +0.8. Form depth EC Vitória: avg 1.1 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 0/6 on the road). SC Internacional: avg 1.7 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (3/6 at home, 2/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.5 total goals (EC Vitória 1.0, SC Internacional 1.5) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments SC Internacional has a stronger recent record (50% vs 30%) — model favours EC Vitória on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.