RB Bragantino scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities RB Bragantino 41.9% · Draw 25.2% · EC Vitória 32.8% Why RB Bragantino is favoured EC Vitória's Elo (1520) is +25 over RB Bragantino (1495); low confidence. Recent: RB Bragantino 4W-0D-6L · EC Vitória 4W-3D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: RB Bragantino -0.1, EC Vitória +0.1. Form depth RB Bragantino: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). EC Vitória: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.6 total goals (RB Bragantino 1.3, EC Vitória 1.4) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.