EC Bahia scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities EC Bahia 51.2% · Draw 25.7% · Grêmio FBPA 23.1% Why EC Bahia is favoured EC Bahia's Elo (1500) is +10 over Grêmio FBPA (1490); low confidence. Recent: EC Bahia 4W-2D-4L · Grêmio FBPA 2W-4D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: EC Bahia +0.0, Grêmio FBPA -0.2. Form depth EC Bahia: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Grêmio FBPA: avg 0.6 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 0/6 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.2 total goals (EC Bahia 1.1, Grêmio FBPA 1.1) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — EC Bahia 0W, 3D, Grêmio FBPA 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 4-0, 1-0, 0-2. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.