| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2–1MODE | 7.8% | 12.88 | ||
| 2–2 | 7.2% | 13.94 | ||
| 1–1 | 6.6% | 15.19 | ||
| 3–1 | 6.1% | 16.39 | ||
| 1–2 | 6.1% | 16.44 | ||
| 3–2 | 5.6% | 17.73 | ||
| 2–3 | 4.4% | 22.63 | ||
| 2–0 | 4.2% | 23.82 |
CR Vasco da Gama scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS home + btts | 35.0% | 37.6% | -7% | 2.85 |
Home win + Over 2.5 home + total_goals_2.5 | 41.6% | 39.0% | +7% | 2.41 |
Away win + BTTS away + btts | 22.7% | 23.5% | -3% | 4.40 |
Away win + Over 2.5 away + total_goals_2.5 | 25.4% | 24.3% | +4% | 3.93 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CR Vasco da Gama 49.9% · Draw 26.0% · CA Paranaense 24.1% Why CR Vasco da Gama is favoured Elo essentially level (1500 vs 1500) — winner depends on context. Recent: CR Vasco da Gama 4W-4D-2L · CA Paranaense 5W-1D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: CR Vasco da Gama +0.2, CA Paranaense +0.4. Form depth CR Vasco da Gama: avg 1.7 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). CA Paranaense: avg 1.6 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (5/6 at home, 0/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.0 total goals (CR Vasco da Gama 1.4, CA Paranaense 1.6) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — CR Vasco da Gama 0W, 2D, CA Paranaense 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 1-0, 0-0. Context CR Vasco da Gama has 3 more days of rest (CR Vasco da Gama 58d, CA Paranaense 55d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.