Santos FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Santos FC 48.4% · Draw 25.7% · RB Bragantino 25.9% Why Santos FC is favoured RB Bragantino's Elo (1510) is +10 over Santos FC (1500); low confidence. Recent: Santos FC 2W-5D-3L · RB Bragantino 4W-1D-5L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Santos FC -0.1, RB Bragantino +0.1. Form depth Santos FC: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). RB Bragantino: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Santos FC on a 2-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.7 total goals (Santos FC 1.3, RB Bragantino 1.4) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments RB Bragantino has a stronger recent record (40% vs 20%) — model favours Santos FC on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — Santos FC 0W, 5D, RB Bragantino 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-2, 1-2, 1-3. Context Santos FC has 2 more days of rest (Santos FC 60d, RB Bragantino 58d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.