Clube do Remo scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Clube do Remo 47.7% · Draw 25.9% · SE Palmeiras 26.4% Why Clube do Remo is favoured Elo essentially level (1510 vs 1515) — winner depends on context. Recent: Clube do Remo 2W-2D-6L · SE Palmeiras 6W-4D-0L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Clube do Remo -0.7, SE Palmeiras +0.7. Form depth Clube do Remo: avg 0.9 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). SE Palmeiras: avg 1.3 goals scored, 0.6 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 3/6 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.2 total goals (Clube do Remo 0.8, SE Palmeiras 1.5) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments SE Palmeiras has a stronger recent record (60% vs 20%) — model favours Clube do Remo on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Context Clube do Remo has 21 more days of rest (Clube do Remo 58d, SE Palmeiras 37d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.