EC Bahia scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities EC Bahia 54.1% · Draw 25.6% · Cruzeiro EC 20.3% Why EC Bahia is favoured EC Bahia's Elo (1500) is +15 over Cruzeiro EC (1485); low confidence. Recent: EC Bahia 4W-3D-3L · Cruzeiro EC 6W-1D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: EC Bahia +0.1, Cruzeiro EC +0.3. Form depth EC Bahia: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Cruzeiro EC: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (4/6 at home, 2/4 on the road). EC Bahia on a 2-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.6 total goals (EC Bahia 1.3, Cruzeiro EC 1.4) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Cruzeiro EC has a stronger recent record (60% vs 40%) — model favours EC Bahia on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — EC Bahia 0W, 4D, Cruzeiro EC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-2, 3-0, 1-1. Context EC Bahia has 21 more days of rest (EC Bahia 59d, Cruzeiro EC 38d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.