EC Bahia scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities EC Bahia 54.2% · Draw 25.2% · Chapecoense AF 20.6% Why EC Bahia is favoured EC Bahia's Elo (1500) is +27 over Chapecoense AF (1473); low confidence. Recent: EC Bahia 3W-3D-4L · Chapecoense AF 0W-2D-8L (last 10). Goal differential per game: EC Bahia +0.0, Chapecoense AF -1.4. Form depth EC Bahia: avg 1.6 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (2/6 at home, 1/4 on the road). Chapecoense AF: avg 0.8 goals scored, 2.2 conceded per game (0/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Chapecoense AF on a 3-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.1 total goals (EC Bahia 1.9, Chapecoense AF 1.2) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — EC Bahia 0W, 4D, Chapecoense AF 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 3-0, 0-2. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.