Moreirense FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Moreirense FC 43.5% · Draw 25.1% · AVS 31.4% Why Moreirense FC is favoured AVS's Elo (1515) is +30 over Moreirense FC (1485); low confidence. Recent: Moreirense FC 2W-3D-5L · AVS 2W-6D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Moreirense FC -0.8, AVS -0.1. Form depth Moreirense FC: avg 0.8 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). AVS: avg 0.9 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). AVS on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.1 total goals (Moreirense FC 0.9, AVS 1.3) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Moreirense FC 0W, 1D, AVS 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-2, 0-3, 1-1. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.