CF Estrela da Amadora scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CF Estrela da Amadora 43.8% · Draw 26.0% · FC Famalicão 30.2% Why CF Estrela da Amadora is favoured Recent: CF Estrela da Amadora 1W-2D-7L · FC Famalicão 5W-5D-0L (last 10). Goal differential per game: CF Estrela da Amadora -0.5, FC Famalicão +0.6. Form depth CF Estrela da Amadora: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). FC Famalicão: avg 1.4 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). CF Estrela da Amadora on a 5-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.4 total goals (CF Estrela da Amadora 0.9, FC Famalicão 1.4) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments FC Famalicão has a stronger recent record (50% vs 10%) — model favours CF Estrela da Amadora on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — CF Estrela da Amadora 0W, 4D, FC Famalicão 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-3, 0-0, 0-3.