CD Tondela scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CD Tondela 51.2% · Draw 25.7% · Moreirense FC 23.1% Why CD Tondela is favoured Recent: CD Tondela 2W-4D-4L · Moreirense FC 2W-3D-5L (last 10). Goal differential per game: CD Tondela -0.7, Moreirense FC -0.9. Form depth CD Tondela: avg 0.9 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (0/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Moreirense FC: avg 0.8 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (2/6 at home, 0/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.5 total goals (CD Tondela 1.3, Moreirense FC 1.2) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — CD Tondela 0W, 3D, Moreirense FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 2-0, 2-1.