Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Valencia CF
To win
+$161.00
Total payout
$181.00
Joint prob
13.3%
Combined odds
9.05
Fair odds
7.54
Edge
+20.1%
Expected value: +$4.02 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.02 on a $20 stake.
Joint prob 17% lower than naïve — books overprice this kind of pair.
Expected value: $-10.33 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Valencia CF scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 13.3% · fair market: 10.6% · edge: +25.4%
Model probabilities Valencia CF 13.3% · Draw 16.4% · FC Barcelona 70.4% Why FC Barcelona is favoured FC Barcelona's Elo (1797) is +321 over Valencia CF (1476); high confidence. Recent: Valencia CF 4W-2D-4L · FC Barcelona 8W-0D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Valencia CF +0.0, FC Barcelona +1.0. Form depth Valencia CF: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 3/6 on the road). FC Barcelona: avg 1.8 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 4/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.6 total goals (Valencia CF 1.1, FC Barcelona 1.6) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Valencia CF 0W, 1D, FC Barcelona 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 6-0, 7-1, 1-2.