Getafe CF scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Getafe CF 45.4% · Draw 25.0% · CA Osasuna 29.6% Why Getafe CF is favoured CA Osasuna's Elo (1467) is +32 over Getafe CF (1435); high confidence. Recent: Getafe CF 4W-1D-5L · CA Osasuna 2W-2D-6L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Getafe CF -0.1, CA Osasuna -0.5. Form depth Getafe CF: avg 0.8 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 2/6 on the road). CA Osasuna: avg 1.2 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (2/6 at home, 0/4 on the road). CA Osasuna on a 4-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.3 total goals (Getafe CF 1.3, CA Osasuna 1.1) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Getafe CF 0W, 3D, CA Osasuna 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 1-2, 1-1.