Levante UD scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Levante UD 52.4% · Draw 24.9% · RCD Mallorca 22.7% Why Levante UD is favoured Levante UD's Elo (1478) is +36 over RCD Mallorca (1442); high confidence. Recent: Levante UD 5W-3D-2L · RCD Mallorca 4W-3D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Levante UD +0.1, RCD Mallorca +0.2. Form depth Levante UD: avg 1.6 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). RCD Mallorca: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Levante UD on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.0 total goals (Levante UD 1.5, RCD Mallorca 1.5) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — Levante UD 0W, 4D, RCD Mallorca 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 2-0, 1-0.