Nottingham Forest FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Nottingham Forest FC 35.7% · Draw 23.3% · AFC Bournemouth 41.0% Why AFC Bournemouth is favoured AFC Bournemouth's Elo (1596) is +89 over Nottingham Forest FC (1508); high confidence. Recent: Nottingham Forest FC 4W-4D-2L · AFC Bournemouth 4W-6D-0L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Nottingham Forest FC +1.1, AFC Bournemouth +0.6. Form depth Nottingham Forest FC: avg 2.2 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 3/6 on the road). AFC Bournemouth: avg 1.4 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (1/6 at home, 3/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (Nottingham Forest FC 1.5, AFC Bournemouth 1.3) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — Nottingham Forest FC 0W, 4D, AFC Bournemouth 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-0, 5-0, 1-1.