Burnley FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Burnley FC 51.4% · Draw 24.2% · Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 24.3% Why Burnley FC is favoured Burnley FC's Elo (1391) is +59 over Wolverhampton Wanderers FC (1332); high confidence. Recent: Burnley FC 0W-2D-8L · Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 2W-3D-5L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Burnley FC -1.4, Wolverhampton Wanderers FC -0.9. Form depth Burnley FC: avg 0.8 goals scored, 2.2 conceded per game (0/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: avg 0.8 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (Burnley FC 1.3, Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 1.5) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Wolverhampton Wanderers FC has a stronger recent record (20% vs 0%) — model favours Burnley FC on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — Burnley FC 0W, 4D, Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-3, 1-1, 1-0.