Manchester United FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Manchester United FC 62.0% · Draw 23.0% · Nottingham Forest FC 15.0% Why Manchester United FC is favoured Manchester United FC's Elo (1607) is +99 over Nottingham Forest FC (1508); high confidence. Recent: Manchester United FC 6W-2D-2L · Nottingham Forest FC 4W-4D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Manchester United FC +0.5, Nottingham Forest FC +1.1. Form depth Manchester United FC: avg 1.6 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Nottingham Forest FC: avg 2.0 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 3/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.8 total goals (Manchester United FC 1.3, Nottingham Forest FC 1.6) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Manchester United FC 0W, 1D, Nottingham Forest FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-2, 1-0, 2-3.