AFC Bournemouth scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities AFC Bournemouth 38.0% · Draw 22.4% · Manchester City FC 39.6% Why Manchester City FC is favoured Manchester City FC's Elo (1713) is +120 over AFC Bournemouth (1593); high confidence. Recent: AFC Bournemouth 4W-6D-0L · Manchester City FC 5W-3D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: AFC Bournemouth +0.6, Manchester City FC +0.7. Form depth AFC Bournemouth: avg 1.3 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 3/5 on the road). Manchester City FC: avg 1.9 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). AFC Bournemouth on a 2-match winning streak. Manchester City FC on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.5 total goals (AFC Bournemouth 1.3, Manchester City FC 1.3) — right around 2.5.